By Yosef Bluth, Staff Writer
The FIDE Candidates tournament is the most important tournament in chess. Held every two years, the winner earns the opportunity to challenge the world champion and take the title for himself. As a result, this tournament exhibits the highest level of play of any tournament, and even qualifying for it is an impressive achievement. Let’s take a look at the players that qualified for this year’s tournament, how they got there, and their odds of winning.
Fabiano Caruana (World Ranking #2, ELO 2803, Plays for the United States):
Fabaino Caruana is currently the #2 ranked player in the world, and with the #1 ranked Magnus Carlsen deciding not to play in the Candidates Tournament, he is the favorite to win. His historical performance is the best out of any player in the tournament, having peaked at #2 in the world multiple times. He also holds the third-highest peak ELO rating in history at 2844. He has played in the Candidates tournament five times – every possible time since he first qualified in 2016. He won the Candidates in 2018, and went on to play against Magnus Carlsen for the championship. Although he lost, it showed just how strong Caruana is.
Recently, Caruana has had an incredibly strong performance. He qualified for the Candidates tournament by finishing third in the Chess World Cup 2023. Fabiano Caruana actually would have qualified three times (by winning the 2023 FIDE Circuit, and having the highest rating in January 2024) if not for the qualification methods stating that the spot goes to the highest player who isn’t already qualified. Caruana has been playing at his strongest level in several years, and should be the favorite coming into the tournament.
Hikaru Nakamura (#3, ELO 2789, United States):
Hikaru Nakamura is one of the most popular chess content creators, with 1.9 million followers on Twitch and nearly 2.3 million subscribers on YouTube. However, beyond his chess content, Hikaru is one of the best classical chess players in the world. Like Fabiano, he is a five time US chess champion. Although Hikaru stopped playing over-the-board classical chess during COVID, he won his first tournament back in 2021, and has been playing at an impressive level since then. He qualified for the Candidates this year by placing second in the FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament.
Hikaru has played in the Candidates tournament twice before, in 2016 and 2022. He tied for 3rd place in the 2022 Candidates, losing out on the 2nd place spot with a loss in the final round. If Hikaru can play up to the level he has been playing at since 2021, he has a good chance to win the tournament.
Alireza Firouzja (#6, ELO 2760, France):
Originally an Iranian player, Firouzja switched to the French Chess Federation due to his home country’s rule forbidding playing against Israeli players. The 20-year-old prodigy is the youngest player to surpass 2800 ELO, and, at his peak, was number two in the world.
Firouzja qualified for the Candidates this year by having the highest rating of any player not already qualified for the tournament. This will be his second appearance in the Candidates. He played in 2022, although his results in that tournament were disappointing – he lost to Caruana, Nakamura, and Ian Nepomniatchi to end in sixth. He is hoping to show that his original climb wasn’t a fluke, and that he truly is the best.
Ian Nepomniachtchi (#7, ELO 2758, Russia):
Nepomniachtchi is the most interesting player to look at coming into this tournament. He qualified for the Candidates Tournament in 2020, where he won with an entire round to go. He then lost the World Championship match to Magnus Carlsen, but as the runner-up he automatically qualified for the Candidates Tournament in 2022. He would dominate that Candidates Tournament even harder, again claiming first with a full round to go. His nine and a half out of fourteen score is the highest anyone has gotten in the Candidates Tournament since the format changed in 2013. However, he would then lose to Ding Liren in the World Championship match in the tiebreakers. He comes into this tournament having once again qualified as the runner-up in the World Championship match. Nepomniachtchi is looking to win the Candidates once again, and finally get the World Championship title he has already come so close to attaining.
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa (#14, ELO 2747, India):
Praggnanandhaa is an incredibly strong chess player, and the highest rated of the three Indian players in the Candidates this year. He qualified for the Candidates by coming in second place in the Chess World Cup in 2023. The 18-year-old is playing in the Candidates for the first time, and is the Indian player with the highest expectations. However, we have seen prodigies come into the Candidates with high expectations as recently as the last tournament in 2022 (with Alireza Firouzja) only to be disappointed. We will see if Praggnanandhaa can live up to expectations.
Dommaraju Gukesh (#16, ELO 2743, India):
The youngest player in the tournament, the 17-year-old Gukesh is a prodigy, and although an incredible player in his own right, he has remained barely below Praggnanandhaa for the vast majority of his career. However, his peak was actually higher at #8 in the world, as opposed to Praggnanandhaa’s peak at #13. He was the first Indian player to surpass former world champion Viswanathan Anand back at his peak in September 2023, which goes to show how he is more than ready to overtake his countryman.
Gukesh qualified for the Candidates Tournament by coming in second in the 2023 FIDE Circuit; a system where players receive points based on their performances in tournaments throughout the year. As the youngest player in the tournament, he isn’t expected to win. However, a strong showing here could allow him to finally claim the title of India’s best from Praggnanandhaa.
Vidit Gujrathi (#25, ELO 2727, India):
The third Indian player in the Candidates, Vidit, is 29 years old. This will be his first time playing in the Candidates. Although an impressive player in his own right, his achievements have largely been overshadowed by those of other strong Indian players like Praggnanandhaa and Gukesh. However, he qualified for the Candidates Tournament by winning the FIDE Grand Swiss ahead of players like Hikaru, who qualified by coming in second. If he can play at that same level, he could be a dark horse to win this tournament.
Nijat Abasov (#114, ELO 2632, Azerbaijan):
Nijat is the surprising entry to the tournament. He qualified for the Candidates tournament by placing 4th in the Chess World Cup 2023, a tournament where only the top three players were meant to qualify. However, when Magnus Carlsen, who won the event, decided to pull out, the final spot for the tournament was given to Nijat. Although he did beat Vidit on his way to the semifinals, his loss in the third place match to Caruana doesn’t bode well for this tournament. It would take both a massive overperformance from Nijat and a massive underperformance from his competition for Nijat to end the tournament in anything other than last place.
This year’s Candidates Tournament is sure to be exciting, with the prize of a shot at the World Championship. If I had to predict which player would win, my money is on either Fabiano Caruana or Ian Nepomniachtchi. Both players have won this championship before, and are more than capable of winning again – although I do think Hikaru Nakamura also has a shot. Whoever wins this tournament has a good opportunity to claim the title, which will make everyone fight even harder. If you want to watch the Candidates, FIDE is broadcasting all of the games online, and chess24 is broadcasting the games on YouTube. I’m looking forward to seeing what happens, and hopefully now so are you!