By Talia Isaacs, Business Editor
Since his inauguration, President Donald Trump has wasted no time in implementing his new immigration policy, initiating mass deportations and a major increase in the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) budget. In Trump’s effort to enact what he calls the “largest deportation programme of criminals in the history of America,” he has deported approximately 300,000 immigrants and detained 60,000 in immigration detention centers.
While this new immigration policy has resulted in a lot of political unrest, there has been less discussion surrounding its economic impact. Regardless of people’s personal opinions on immigration or Trump’s crackdown on immigrants, it’s no secret that many sectors of the U.S. workforce are heavily reliant on immigrant workers, documented and undocumented alike, for their skilled labor.
In California, where over a quarter of residents are immigrants, agriculture is taking a major hit, losing thousands of workers to Trump’s immigration crackdown. The damage will not be contained within the agricultural sector; it will ripple across the state’s economy, threatening billions of dollars in gross domestic product or GDP. Another California sector struggling under the Trump administration is construction, as the majority of its workers are immigrants, a fifth of whom are undocumented. The enforcement of harsh immigration policies has resulted in a shortage of skilled laborers to do construction work,jeopardizing California’s economic stability, which in turn will impact other states and potentially even the global economy.
The ramifications of Trump’s strict immigration policy do not stop at skilled labor, but bleed into academia and higher education as well. Even those who are here legally on student visas may be targeted as the administration continues to crackdown on college campus protestors. Proposed laws threaten students and teachers alike, potentially undermining research and hundreds of thousands of jobs. Aside from the faculty, colleges may see a drop in international enrollment as well. Currently, over one million international students are enrolled in American higher education programs and have Optional Practical Training authorization to gain temporary employment. Universities are at risk of losing esteemed faculty members and administrators, as well as students. Having been given free reign, ICE is entitled to come onto campuses and arrest students and faculty, the ripple effects of which could lead to severe economic repercussions, including delayed education, professor shortages and more.
Aside from the impact on these specific sectors, immigration as a whole has proven to benefit the U.S. economy. It contributes to the expansion of the labor force and increases the amount of tax dollars received by the federal government, helping lower the national debt and promote an overall healthy economy. Additionally, nearly 30% of workers possessing doctoral degrees in America are immigrants, and immigrants overall often outperform native-born U.S. citizens, specifically in regard to employment rates.
Some may argue that harsh immigration policies will benefit the U.S. economy by opening up jobs or promoting fair wages. Unfortunately, this supposed silver lining has proven to be a fallacy, with economists predicting a major economic contraction in the wake of mass deportation. Instead of creating jobs to reduce national unemployment, the removal of immigrant workers en masse may result in the further automation of labor, especially since native-born U.S. workers are unlikely to accept the low wages and poor conditions associated with these jobs .
Much of the economic impact of Trump’s immigration policy remains to be seen, but economic turmoil is almost certainly looming. The fate of immigrants and the U.S. economy are in limbo for now, as key industries like farming, construction and hospitality wait to see whether they’ll face worker shortages, higher costs or pressure to automate. What’s clear is that these decisions won’t just affect immigrants; they’ll shape the economy that all Americans participate in.
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