By Sarah Brill, Science and Technology Editor
With the 2020 election season drawing to a close, the American population restlessly awaits the results. It is important to note that there are a few key details about this election that might differ from previous years. For one, 66,322,813 voters across the United States have requested a vote-by-mail ballot with all the states accepting these ballots. It is also known that 44% of Democrats requested their ballots by mail whereas only 25.7% of republicans requested their ballots by mail which could lead to three possible outcomes. The first being that after the polls close this evening, November 3, President Trump claims victory from only the polling numbers but discovers on November 4 that a considerable number of ballots have been counted from the mail and show a swing towards Biden, offering him, Biden, the position as president. The second being that former Vice President Joe Biden claims victory over the polling booth numbers and the mail-in-ballot numbers. The final option being that Trump wins both the polling numbers and the mail-in-ballots, but seeing the projected numbers as of earlier today, it is very unlikely for this third scenario to occur. For all of these options, it does seem that by popular vote, meaning votes cast by the people on or before election day, lean in favor of Joe Biden. Regardless, it is up to the electoral college, or the count of states and their political affiliation, which will determine the outcome of this election.
Let us be reminded that while Hillary Clinton, presidential nominee of 2016, won the popular vote by 2.87 million votes, she still lost the election due to the electoral college swaying in favor of President Trump. In order for a candidate to win the electoral college, they must gain 270 points. Points refers to the amount of weight a certain state holds. For example, California holds 55 points while Colorado only holds 9. This is determined primarily by how large the state is. This means that if Joe Biden wins California, as he is projected to do, and Trump wins the now swing state of Texas, President Trump will be trailing Joe Biden in electoral college votes by 17 points.
Swing states in this election could be the deciding factor of whether a candidate wins or loses. Swing states are those in which could either be democrat or republican in a given year. For this election, the swing states are Arizona, which has been republican in the past with the exception of Bill Clinton’s election, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, Texas, a historically republican state, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Let’s touch on Arizona and Texas for a moment. These are both states to watch since they both hold high point counts in the electoral college, and both these states have historically voted red. As of November 3 at 4:47p.m. in Arizona, former Vice President Biden led President Trump by 5%. In Texas, President Trump led by a very close margin of 1%. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona are all states who turned red in the 2016 and are states that much attention is being paid to in addition to the historically red states.
This election is pivotal for both parties and it is quite historic as many of the states that are swinging this year have not in the past. It also holds significance as whoever is elected will be thrust into another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Needless to say, this election will be one to remember, so keep your TV and your election updates on, the votes are starting to be tallied.
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Sources:
https://en.as.com/en/2020/10/01/latest_news/1601573475_873575.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/swing-states-to-watch-2020-presidential-election/