By Sarah Schafer
Every day, 1.2 million people pour into Midtown Manhattan, making it the busiest neighborhood in all of New York City. This traffic rush does not go unnoticed by its pedestrians and residents; honks echo at all hours of the night, and the streets themselves prove difficult to cross, with crosswalks blocked by cars spilled over from the previous intersection.
In January 2025, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) moved to address these challenges by installing the nation’s first ever congestion toll. Modeled after similar implementations in London and Stockholm, the MTA spent $500 million to install E-ZPass readers and license plate scanners across 110 detection points. They targeted Manhattan’s Central Business District (Midtown and Lower Manhattan), charging passenger vehicles up to $9 extra to enter these specific zones. Governor Kathy Hochul, outlining the goals of the congestion pricing, said they aim to “reduce traffic in our crowded downtown, improve air quality and provide critical resources to the MTA.”
In January 2026, a year later, Governor Hochul provided an updated statement affirming the toll’s success. “By every measure, this program has met or exceeded expectations: traffic and gridlock are down substantially, people are moving faster, air quality is improved, streets are safer and our economy is stronger,” she said. “New Yorkers are benefiting from congestion pricing every day.” This assertion was backed up by statistics from the MTA, which reported that traffic was down 11%, crashes down 7% and crossing speeds up by as much as 51%.
But upon closer inspection, one of these statistics deserves scrutiny. The MTA’s claim that crashes are down 7% sounds reassuring, until you ask what’s actually being measured. The MTA’s statistic is based on the total number of collisions occurring, not the more useful statistic, the rate at which these collisions are occurring. Because fewer cars are entering the zone, the streets are emptier, which would indicate fewer total accidents. But, the cars are traveling faster, which would imply increased chances of accidents, raising the accident rate. In order to truly evaluate the impact of the congestion prices on street safety, the rate of collisions, or how many accidents are occurring per car entering the zone, is the crucial statistic, one that was notably omitted. I set out to discover the accident rate myself.
First, I filtered the data of all collisions within New York City to sort for accidents that occurred within the congestion zone, post toll implementation. I merged this data with records from the congestion tolls regarding how many cars were coming into the zone. The number of collisions per the number of cars coming in results in the true collision rate. These calculations proved that my hypothesis was actually correct. The accident rates have increased since toll implementation, not decreased. For every 100,000 vehicles entering the zone, the 2025 accident rate ranged from 4.3 to 5.5 accidents, consistently higher than the 2024 pre-toll range of 4.2 to 4.9.
While the degree of change may seem insignificant, it is a testament to the fact that the safety of the streets has actually decreased because of the congestion toll pricing, the opposite of what Governor Hochul had promised. The congestion toll has undeniably achieved several of its intended goals: reduced traffic volume, improved air quality and increased MTA funding. Yet these wins come with an overlooked cost. As fewer cars entered the zone, speeds increased, and so did the chance of collision. Next time, policymakers should consider the entire picture and weigh all potential outcomes to ensure there are no unintended consequences, and that New York City continues to move forward safely.
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