By Ariel Azar
After the Iowa caucus was held on January 15, 2024, former President Trump won the vote with a 30% lead over the other candidates. Following this, almost all of the GOP candidates dropped out of the race and endorsed the former president.
However, former South Carolina governor Niki Haley, who oddly enough was the only candidate not to pledge that she wouldn’t become the former president vice presidential nominee if the former president would formally clinch the nomination, is the only candidate still in the race. Haley has the ignorant confidence and delusion of believing she can still win. For voters like me, the path that she claims she has to win is not visible.
According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, as of February 5, 2024, the gap in national polls between Trump and Haley is 56% and in the former governor’s home state of South Carolina, polling shows Trump is also leading Haley by 32%. This is a horrible sign for Haley as no candidate has ever won a GOP primary that included all 50 states has ever gotten the GOP nomination without winning their home state. An even worse sign for Haley is that in every state recent polls have shown that she is behind by at least 20%.
After the New Hampshire primary race, the former president beat Haley by double digits. Many national GOP figures which include Senators, House Reps, and RNC officials have gone out to endorse the former president. Many public figures have called for the former governor to drop out of the race for the sake of party unity and to defeat President Biden. Some RNC officials felt so strongly about Trump becoming the presumptive nominee that one filed a motion for the RNC to name Trump the presumptive nominee and shift fully into general election mode. The motion was withdrawn, not because Haley proved she could win, but because a Trump Truth social post stated that he felt that for the sake of party unity, the primary should be decided by the ballot box.
It’s a horrible sign to be down 30% in your home state, but it is a campaign-killing sign that the primary race is still going solely because your campaign rival wishes it to continue.
This all begs the question: Why is Haley still in the race? Why does she believe she has a way to win the nomination?
First, she has a decent amount of donors who may provide her with enough money that may carry her through the race. For example, Haley raised $16.5 million in January, according to her campaign. Regardless, money can’t buy you elections no matter how much you raise and no matter how many donors you have. In 2020, Mike Bloomberg spent 500 million dollars in his campaign and still lost the democratic nomination to President Biden.
Secondly, Trump has an uncertain fate with his pending court trials which could make him ineligible for the race and she would win by default. However, even if Trump is convicted of a crime, 63% of Republicans would still vote for him. He may not win the general but he’ll still win the primary election.
Finally, she could become the “I told you so” candidate whether Trump wins and not much changes or he loses in an even worse way than 2020 and runs in 2028 on that slogan. But, with the satisfaction of most Trump voters in his first term and Biden’s approval rating at 40% as incumbent, it is unlikely this will occur. Finally, like what she did New Hampshire, Haley is trying to use open primaries to her benefit and is trying to attract independent and democrat voters to vote for her. While this may earn her more votes, it also alienates many Republicans, decreasing her chances further in the primary.